McLaren’s one chink of light in the race was the pit stops. Norris was about 1.5 seconds behind Verstappen as they neared, just about within theoretical range of the ‘undercut’, where a driver gains a position by stopping first and using the time gained on fresh tyres to be ahead by the time his rival exits the pits.
But McLaren were undone by an unfortunate set of circumstances.
They ‘dummied’ a stop with Norris on lap 18, with a fake radio message telling him to pit. Red Bull ignored them.
Then Mercedes stopped George Russell on lap 19. His pace on new tyres threatened to undercut him ahead of Piastri. And that meant McLaren had to pit Piastri on lap 20 to be sure of retaining his position. Although the McLaren was faster than the Mercedes, the difficulty of overtaking meant they did not believe Piastri would have been able to pass Russell on track.
That gave the game away to Red Bull, who realised Norris would come in next time around. So they stopped Verstappen. Keeping Norris out would not have worked – he’d have lost more time on his old tyres. So he had to pit, too.
Even then, McLaren fashioned a sliver of a chance. Norris’ stop was a full second faster than Verstappen’s and the Briton was halfway alongside the Red Bull when they exited the pits. But Verstappen was entitled to keep his line, and he did.
The narrowing track meant Norris’ trajectory took him on to the grass. He had to back off, and the lead stayed with Verstappen.
“Maybe we could have tried more with strategy,” Norris said. “We’ll discuss that.
“Could we have gone earlier? Yes. But then you’re at risk of safety cars. If you box three laps earlier and safety car comes out, you look stupid.”
Stella said it was “unclear” whether the undercut would have worked. He said they would “review” the data. But on Sunday evening he was not prepared to say that this was a race that got away, as McLaren subsequently said about their strategy choices at Canada and Silverstone last year.
Although the McLaren was the fastest car, other circumstances of Suzuka played against them once Verstappen was on pole.
Their car has a tyre-wear advantage and that is traditionally high at Suzuka. Last year, that might have meant their pace advantage would have grown through the stints, creating an overtaking possibility.
But the first sector of the lap had been resurfaced and that led to degradation being low, so they had lost one of their theoretical advantages over their rivals.
“So, once, for instance, you nail the qualifying laps like Max did yesterday,” Stella said, “then it gets a little bit difficult to get out of the rabbit hole.”
